The first half of the season in the American League has gone – for the most part – as planned. When it comes to the standings, there aren’t a lot of surprises and there aren’t a lot of disappointments. California-Anaheim-Los Angeles Angels are in first place in the West, Boston in first place in the East with the Yankees close on their heels, and there is a bit of a scrum in the Central. All is the way it’s supposed to be.

Right?

Well, not exactly.

David Ortiz was supposed to be the offensive engine for the Red Sox. The Mariners were going to be a ship adrift at sea after losing Raul Ibanez. Kansas City was going to be this year’s edition of the Tampa Bay Rays, who by the way were going to come back to Earth. And, um, somebody wrote that Cleveland was going to be the best team in the Central and AJ Burnett was going to be a colossal failure in New York.

Hey, come on. There’s still half a season left. Burnett could still stub his toe really, really bad.

Over in the West, the Southern California Angels of Orange County look like world beaters. They lead the majors in hitting, are second in stolen bases,  fifth in runs scored, 12th in runs allowed and have a rotation deep enough to weather the recent injury to Ervin Santana. Brian Fuentes anchors what continues to be one of the most rock solid bullpens in baseball. They have a team that’s good enough to win the AL right now, and they are the odds on favorites to win the Jake Peavy (injured or not) sweepstakes.

The funny thing is they might only be the second best team in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area, but that’s a conversation for another time. There are only a couple other teams in the AL that can challenge them.

It should be noted here that the Texas Rangers are tied for first place with the Angels at the moment . But really, all this tells me is that they have made their annual sprint into the oppressive Dallas summer heat, where they will inevitably melt. Happens every year. Sorry boys. You might want to put a roof on that thing in Arlington.

In the East we have baseball’s greatest money maker, the race between the Yankees and the Red Sox (with the Rays and Jays desperately trying to crash the party). I’m very clearly on the record saying this isn’t New York’s year, and every reason I gave was wrong. I didn’t think Burnett would be healthy going into June, much less at the All Star Break, I thought CC Sabathia would have a much more difficult time adjusting to New York (although, I didn’t foresee his health problems, either), and I felt that the rest of the team was either too old (Jorge Posada) or too inexperienced (Joba Chamberlain).

So, my reasoning was flawed, but my opinions may still be right. Because as good as the Yankees are, the Red Sox are better. They have the deepest rotation in baseball, and by the end of July, they will most likely have a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka and a sharper John Smoltz. David Ortiz’s skills are clearly in decline, but Kevin Youkilis , Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay are picking up the slack capably, and Jason Varitek has bounced back nicely from a sub-par 2008 season. Throw in a little Jonathan Papelbon and the only team in baseball with a better bullpen than the Angels, and you have a team that could win its third world championship in five years.

The Central, as usual, is sticky, messy and not very pretty. The Tigers are something of a surprise to me. Edwin Jackson looks like he was a good move, as was defensive wiz Adam Everett. And now that Magglio Ordonez has cut his hair…sorry, I can’t even finish that sentence. Really? Honestly, why do we care? The guy’s 35 years old. He’s going to have a slump or two. Haircuts don’t cure slumps anymore than fat girls do. But anyway… The Tigers look good, if a year late from their much ballyhooed makeover of 2008.

The White Sox are making a move right now, and the guess here is they will keep it coming. Mark Buehrle looks as good as ever. John Danks and Gavin Floyd are a little unsteady, but both are fantastic when they are on. The offense, though getting on in years is still a force to be reckoned with. Carlos Quentin is on his way back, which will do a lot for that lineup. And I’d take Ozzie Guillen over 90 percent of the managers in baseball. Yes he’s eccentric. But he’s honest and blunt. The game needs more people like Ozzie, with a ton of skill and a ton of personality. He’ll have his club in the thick of things to the end, and with the help he gets from Kenny Williams (), he’ll probably win the division.

The Twins look lost. Sometimes they can pitch. Sometimes they can hit (except for Joe Mauer, who might hit .670 this year). Usually they can catch the ball. But they’re playing style has changed from a scrappy small ball team, to a more traditional AL station-to-station-wait-for-a-home-run style. They’ve lost their identity and, as a result, are a .500 team.

The Royals are a disappointment, but not as much as Cleveland. What the hell happened to these guys? Jhonny Peralta? Cliff Lee? Hello?  Yes, they’ve been beat up, and it’s sad to see what’s happening to Travis Hafner, but most teams at least try to overcome injuries. This team had quit by June 1st. Nice knowing you, Eric Wedge. Maybe you too, Mark Shapiro. I hope you guys both find new jobs before Christmas.

So, it’s looking to me like it will be the Angels and the Red Sox in the ALCS. That Josh Beckett – Jake Peavy match-up in game one should be a good time. From here, it looks to me like the Red Sox will win that series and possibly the one after that too.

But who knows? Maybe in three months I’ll be writing a public apology to the Rangers or the Rays or – God willing – the Twins (But not the Yankees. I’ll never apologize to them). We’ll see. For now, I’m just glad that we have another half season left.