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		<title>Jacobs to Royals &#8211; fair deal?</title>
		<link>http://www.brushbackpitch.com/2008/11/03/93/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 05:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[I said - He said]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.brushbackpitch.com/?p=93</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Occasionally my brother and I find a topic that gets us riled up and we end up arguing about it online for an irrational amount of time. Such was the case when I pointed out to him late last week that the Florida Marlins started the baseball offseason by trading Mike Jacobs to Kansas City [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Occasionally my brother and I find a topic that gets us riled up and we end up arguing about it online for an irrational amount of time. Such was the case when I pointed out to him late last week that the <a href="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5guAw0DM9N3eKS1C0DLja3woWlbYwD9450DSO0" target="_blank">Florida Marlins started the baseball offseason </a>by trading Mike Jacobs to Kansas City for Leo Nunez, a relief pitcher.</p>
<p>I argued that while Jacobs is certainly not a superstar, his 32-homer, 93 RBI season should have garnered more than a middle reliever in return. He pointed to Jacobs&#8217; sub-.300 on base percentage and lack of history as a 30-plus homer guy in saying that the Marlins got about as much as they could.</p>
<p>The following conversation ensued:</p>
<p><span id="more-93"></span></p>
<p>Andy: A 32 homer corner infielder for a set up guy that pitched 45 innings last year?</p>
<p>Tony: They have a glut of 1B prospects, including one that apparently is possibly going to be a 30-40 HR guy WITH average.</p>
<p>Andy: I have no issue with trading him.</p>
<p>Andy: I have issue with trading him for some 40 inning MAYBE setup guy.</p>
<p>Andy: That&#8217;s all they could get for Jacobs?</p>
<p>Andy: The Twins should have offered up Jose Mijares or Jesse Crain or &#8230; both &#8230; or some other mid-level pitching minor leaguer that&#8217;s close to ready and gotten Jacobs for that.A 30 homer guy for a middle reliever?</p>
<p>Andy: Not proclaiming Mike Jacobs Babe Ruth or anything like that, but what would the Twins lineup look like with a 30 homer DH? For that price?</p>
<p>Andy: Jacobs must be a first-class dick or something.</p>
<p>Tony: Yes, the Twins are real likely to go out and get a 30 HR guy who can&#8217;t hit his weight.  Sounds like their strategy.</p>
<p>Tony: Not saying it shouldn&#8217;t maybe be.  But&#8230;.</p>
<p>Andy: .260? From a 30 homer guy?</p>
<p>Andy: I&#8217;ll take that.</p>
<p>Tony: yeah, if he could consistently hit that.</p>
<p>Tony: Nice OBP, too, even when he did hit that.</p>
<p>Tony: You and I might take that&#8211;but that&#8217;s not what the Twins want.</p>
<p>Tony: And Nunez can supposedly throw in the bid 90&#8217;s.</p>
<p>Andy: so can dozens and dozens of pitchers</p>
<p>Tony: And middle bullpen is important.  If the Twins had one, they would have won the division by 5 games this year.</p>
<p>Tony: Nunez is 25 years old.</p>
<p>Andy: Great.</p>
<p>Andy: There are a lot of 25 year old relievers out there&#8230; I&#8217;d rather have Jacobs.</p>
<p>Andy: He put all those numbers together last year on a Marlins team with a payroll somewhere around $650,000.</p>
<p>Andy: In the Twins lineup he&#8217;d be protected &#8211; and if the Twins had another power bat in their lineup they would have won the division by 5 games also.</p>
<p>Tony: eh&#8230;debateable.</p>
<p>Tony: they also might have lost a few more games when Jacobs struck out in an important situation.</p>
<p>Tony: I don&#8217;t think protecting Jacobs would close the apparent holes in his swing.</p>
<p>Andy: I&#8217;m not trying to make Jacobs into A-Rod or Man-Ram or Bab-Rut &#8211; I&#8217;m just saying that he is a more than competent bat that was worth more than a mid-to-short reliever, even if the reliever is 25 with a 95 mile per hour fastball &#8212; I will take the bat over a bullpen arm any time &#8211; you can get competent bullpen arms more easily than you can get 30-homer guys in this, the post-steroid era of Major League Baseball.</p>
<p>Tony: The Twins fail at getting both competent bullpen arms and 30 HR guys.</p>
<p>Andy: What?</p>
<p>Andy: The Twins generally have an overload of competent bullpen guys.</p>
<p>Tony: And I still think you are overvaluing the value of players in a non-trading deadline deal.</p>
<p>Andy: Last year was not the trend.</p>
<p>Andy: Generally the Twins have had one of the best bullpens in baseball.</p>
<p>Tony: Whatever.  Fine.  The Twins failed this year to field a competent bullpen with Neshek hurt&#8211;be it fatigue or whatever.</p>
<p>Tony: That is all that I care about right now.</p>
<p>Andy: And Crain coming back from injury and Perkins coming back from injury&#8230;</p>
<p>Tony: That and next year &#8211; how the bullpen has to be a question mark for next year.</p>
<p>Tony: Crain can stay hurt.</p>
<p>Tony: Perkins is a starter.</p>
<p>Tony: And will whine if he&#8217;s not.</p>
<p>Andy: Yes, Perkins is a starter, but he came up as a reliever and probably would still be one if he wasn&#8217;t hurt.</p>
<p>Tony: huh?  Still would be what if he wasn&#8217;t hurt?  I didn&#8217;t think Perkins was hurt.</p>
<p>Tony: And he was a starter in the minors.</p>
<p>Andy: Perkins missed the last half of the 2007 season with some sort of arm thing &#8211; and the reason they made him a starter in the majors this year was because they wanted him to pitch on a regular schedule and not on the some nights on, some nights off schedule of a reliever.</p>
<p>Andy: Maybe so, but I don&#8217;t think it would have happened this season.</p>
<p>Tony: I do.</p>
<p>Tony: Who else would have started?</p>
<p>Tony: Think they would have kept Livan?</p>
<p>Andy: I think Perkins&#8217; best role is as a reliever long-term.</p>
<p>Andy: He&#8217;s a mediocre starter &#8211; a five-and-fly guy.</p>
<p>Tony: I think Perkins is a #4 or #5 starter.</p>
<p>Andy: I think he&#8217;s a #5 or #6 starter</p>
<p>Tony: I think he has the stuff, and I think he&#8217;ll pout if he&#8217;s not a starter.</p>
<p>Tony: He&#8217;ll probably sign a huge contract in a couple years with some team that&#8217;s too stupid to know better.</p>
<p>Andy: If the Twins had an opportunity to trade Perkins and Blackburn for something worthwhile I&#8217;d do it in a heartbeat.</p>
<p>Tony: I agree.  But I don&#8217;t think they would get much for them.</p>
<p>Andy: Keep Liriano, Slowey and Baker and count on the guys coming up from the minors to fill out the other roles.</p>
<p>Tony: Maybe a .245, 20-25 HR guy like Jacobs.</p>
<p>Andy: Hell, if the Royals can get a 30 homer guy for a middle reliever then the Twins should be able to get a 40 homer, 150 rbi guy for one of those mediocre starters.</p>
<p>Andy: 20-25 homer guy, pshaw. Jacobs is still young and ascending.</p>
<p>Tony: I think you are vastly over estimating the value of MLB guys that aren&#8217;t major stars.</p>
<p>Tony: pshaw</p>
<p>Tony: he has one year of 30+ HR on his resume.</p>
<p>Tony: He&#8217;s 28 years old&#8211;he&#8217;s already at his prime.</p>
<p>Andy: Bah</p>
<p>Tony: And his average dropped 15-20 points this year in getting to 30 HR, AND his OBP was sub .300.</p>
<p>Tony: This has been a fun morning of debate.  I like beating you in debates like this.  We should have a show on KFAN of me beating you in debates.</p>
<p>Andy: Yeah, that&#8217;s a great thought except you haven&#8217;t come close to beating me in a debate this morning.</p>
<p>Tony: Please.  Mike Jacobs is overrated and you know it.</p>
<p>Andy: You sound like someone who&#8217;s disagreeing just to be disagreeable.</p>
<p>Andy: Jacobs could be overrated and still be worth more than a guy who threw 45 innings in the majors last year.</p>
<p>Tony: No, I agree that the Twins could maybe have used him.</p>
<p>Tony: But he&#8217;s better than the kind of guy that we&#8217;re used to picking up.</p>
<p>Tony: I think he also is due a huge raise in arbitration.</p>
<p>Tony: Since a guy who hit .245, got on base less than 30% of the time, and struck out 100+ times is probably worth like $10 million a year in MLB.</p>
<p>Andy: He is not going to get $10M this year.</p>
<p>Tony: No, but he&#8217;ll get a big raise.</p>
<p>Andy: Maybe $4M or $5M &#8230; maybe. I&#8217;m not writing him into the hall of fame &#8211; at least not in ink &#8211; but he is a major upgrade for KC on offense and all they gave up was a guy who pitched 45 innings for them. I&#8217;m sorry &#8211; Florida got screwed and you lose the debate.</p>
<p>Tony: You&#8217;re delusional if you think all he gets is $4-5 million in arbitration.</p>
<p>Tony: The Royals will offer $4-5, he&#8217;ll want $6-7, and the judge will side with him.</p>
<p>Andy: You&#8217;re high.</p>
<p>Andy: <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081030&amp;content_id=3654841&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=mlb" target="_blank">(Inserts link for story indicating the salary range Jacobs might command in 2008)</a></p>
<p>Andy: Search for Jacobs is eligible</p>
<p>Andy: Guys&#8217; salaries don&#8217;t jump that high in their first year of arbitration when their numbers are what Jacobs&#8217; are.</p>
<p>Tony: hmmm&#8230;didn&#8217;t realize his salary was that low right now.</p>
<p>Andy: Hmm. I win again.</p>
<p>Tony: Guess it&#8217;s because he was in the minors for so long because he&#8217;s NOT THAT GOOD.</p>
<p>Andy: He homered once every 14.9 at bats, the 10th best mark in the Major Leagues&#8230;</p>
<p>Andy: You&#8217;ve got nothing left. Admit it. I win.</p>
<p>Tony: How often did he get on base?</p>
<p>Tony: How often did he strike out?</p>
<p>Andy: Runs produced &#8211; 93 RBI on a team with a total salary lower than he&#8217;ll make for KC next year&#8230;</p>
<p>Andy: I don&#8217;t care if his on base percentage is .299 if he hits a homer every 14 at bats.</p>
<p>Andy: Now you just sound angry.</p>
<p>Tony: An arbitration eligible, average at best 1B (overloaded position) is not worth much in a trade two days after the season finishes&#8211;and even less come arbitration time.</p>
<p>Tony: You don&#8217;t care that a guy got on base less than 30% of the time?</p>
<p>Andy: 93 RBI</p>
<p>Andy: 32 homers</p>
<p>Tony: Christ, think if he could hit how many RBI he would have had.</p>
<p>Andy: Think how he might hit in a lineup of real major leaguers?</p>
<p>Tony: How does payroll determine talent level?</p>
<p>Tony: The Marlins were in the playoff race until late in the season.</p>
<p>Andy: Oh, come on.</p>
<p>Tony: They have Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, and a couple other decent players.</p>
<p>Andy: They would have made the playoffs if they had an offense that could score.</p>
<p>Andy: No, they had Uggla, Hanley and Jacobs&#8230; maybe Cantu for part of the season was legit.</p>
<p>Andy: You make it sound like I think the guy should have a golden bat &#8211; all I was arguing was that the Marlins got screwed getting nothing but  a middle reliever for him.</p>
<p>Tony: Florida Marlins&#8211;14th in Runs scored in the Majors.</p>
<p>Andy: They could have kept a 30 homer guy in their lineup, apparently for $3.5 million, instead they traded him for a middle reliever so they could bring up from the minor leagues some &#8220;potential&#8221; stud.</p>
<p>Andy: Guess what happens with a lot of potential studs.</p>
<p>Tony: 5th in the NL.</p>
<p>Andy: Alex Gordon?</p>
<p>Andy: Blah, blah.</p>
<p>Andy: The Marlins are continuing their tradition of being cheap.</p>
<p>Andy: Middle releiver</p>
<p>Andy: 45 innings</p>
<p>Tony: Cantu was better than Jacobs.</p>
<p>Andy: for a guy who hit 30+ homers and 93 rbi</p>
<p>Andy: Cantu was better than Jacobs?</p>
<p>Tony: .277 with 29 HR or .245 with 32?</p>
<p>Andy: Great.</p>
<p>Tony: 95 RBI or 92?</p>
<p>Andy: So with Jacobs, Cantu (if he doesn&#8217;t go back to sucking), Ramiriez and Uggla you&#8217;ve got the makings of a solid lineup next year.</p>
<p>Tony: .327 OBP or .299?</p>
<p>Andy: Instead you trade one of those cogs because he&#8217;s due arbitration for a middle reliever.</p>
<p>Andy: In hopes that some guy from the minors, who could end up being great or could end up being a prima donna flop, can come up and replace him.</p>
<p>Andy: $3.5 million.</p>
<p>Tony: because he&#8217;s due arbitration and because you&#8217;ve got some minor league stuff that&#8217;s ready, apparently.</p>
<p>Andy: The Marlins say they are committed to increasing their salary this year.</p>
<p>Andy: But they go and trade a guy who is going to make $3.5 milliion.</p>
<p>Andy: The Marlins are a fraud.</p>
<p>Tony: Great, so they plug in a theoretically better, cheaper option at 1B, and spend that money on pitching (starting, since you now have a middle reliever), and another bat for the OF or something.</p>
<p>Andy: Or they keep their payroll down to the level of their revenue sharing revenue again.</p>
<p>Tony: Yes, that&#8217;s more likely.  I won&#8217;t debate that.</p>
<p>Tony: Just like it is in MN&#8211;where they would rather keep the payroll down, not pay an arbitration eligible 1B who might make a crappy DH, and spend $2 million to sign some over the hill sack of crap that they will cut by July.</p>
<p>Andy: Their payroll hasn&#8217;t been $40 M since 2005.</p>
<p>Andy: $40M</p>
<p>Andy: The Twins payroll was higher than that this year after getting rid of Santana and Hunter</p>
<p>Andy: $22M last year.</p>
<p>Andy: $22M last year and they are talking about trading Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen also.</p>
<p>Tony: Yeah, the Marlins management is [taking advantage of the situation], no doubt.</p>
<p>Tony: Just tried to find who the 1B was&#8211;might be a AA guy.  I thought he was a better prospect&#8211;that&#8217;s what I get for believing that douchebag with the baseball card blog.</p>
<p>Andy: At one point the Marlins were at least looking at a starting pitcher prospect from KC with a 95 MPH fastball &#8211; I could have swallowed that a lot more than I can swallow the middle reliever.</p>
<p>Andy: Former UM standout Gaby Sanchez is apparently the prospect.</p>
<p>Tony: yeah, that&#8217;s the guy.</p>
<p>Andy: Hasn&#8217;t hit more than 17 homers in the minors</p>
<p>Andy: Guy hits for good average, but he&#8217;s not at all a power guy at this point.</p>
<p>Andy: Hasn&#8217;t played AAA</p>
<p>Andy: Sorry &#8211; this adds to my belief this was yet another salary dump for the marlins</p>
<p>Andy: 06, they received $31M in revenue sharing for a payroll of $15.9M; 2008, they received $25M in revenue sharing for a $22M payroll.</p>
<p>Andy: That is wrong.</p>
<p>Andy: Revenue sharing was not meant to line the owner&#8217;s pockets.</p>
<p>Tony: Yeah, that weakens that part of my argument.  But I still don&#8217;t think Jacobs was worth a whole lot more than a solid middle reliever.</p>
<p>Andy: The Florida Marlins are a disgrace.</p>
<p>Tony: I never would have argued that.</p>
<p>Tony: I don&#8217;t think the Twins should have given up more to get Jacobs, though.  I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s the kind of guy that would help them.</p>
<p>Andy: No, but the Twins apparently could have given up a guy like Jose Mijares or something similar and gotten Jacobs &#8211; and for that price I&#8217;d have to consider it.</p>
<p>Andy: 32 homers for $3.5M?</p>
<p>Andy: For a reliever?</p>
<p>Andy: I&#8217;d still do it in a heartbeat.</p>
<p>Tony: .299 OBP for $3.5 million?  We already have better than that for less.  Go spend $5 million and get 25 HR and a .340 OBP.</p>
<p>Andy: Anyone in particular you&#8217;d be targeting for that who would be available?</p>
<p>Andy: Most teams would keep players that produce that for that little.</p>
<p>Tony: No, I don&#8217;t know who would be.</p>
<p>Andy: Largely because the only team willing to dump a guy like that is Florida.</p>
<p>Tony: Although, I keep hearing that a guy like Atkins might be available, or the guy from Seattle&#8211;both cost more, but also help a hell of a lot more.</p>
<p>Andy: That might be true &#8211; but yeah, they&#8217;ll have to give up more and they&#8217;ll have to pay more.</p>
<p>Tony: Still what I&#8217;d rather see them do.</p>
<p>Tony: I don&#8217;t want them to spend $100 million&#8211;but $50 or $60 would be nice.</p>
<p>Andy: I don&#8217;t disagree. But based on what this team has done in the past the Twins are more likely to go the Jacobs route&#8230; and Jacobs would be a helluva lot better than most of the guys they have signed as free agents for that price in the past&#8230;</p>
<p>Andy: That said, moot point at this point.</p>
<p>Andy: The Royals already got to screw the Marlins.</p>
<p>Tony: Ah, even Jacobs is no where near the route that the Twins have a history of going.  Not nearly old enough, or on a far enough down the downside of his career.</p>
<p>Andy: Perhaps true.</p>
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